Early

In this article on The Southeast Texas Political Review, Philip R. Klein makes this prediction:

The Southeast Texas Political Review has learned that incoming county judge Jeff Branick may step into office post the primary elections "as early as April of 2010" according to sources very close to the commissioners court.

The earth "may" crash into the sun tomorrow, too - to be revisited.

After quoting two entirely anonymous and spurious sources, Philip returns to a common theme:

Here are the facts - people are leaving Jefferson County to the tune of 120 families a month.

Fact check: The U.S. Census doesn't mail until March, so Philip's figure of 120 families is week is as credible as his anonymous sources.

Spending by all government sources in Jefferson County has increased by 32.9% in the past five years.

I've addressed spending in Jefferson County on several occasions; typically, Philip's figure is dead wrong. Do the math yourself: compute the percentage change between the 2005 budget and the 2010 budget.

Inflation of the home market has reached the same level (imagine that) to the tune of 33%.

Klein's statement that "Inflation of the home market has reached the same level to the tune of 33%" is gibberish.  According to the Texas A&M Real Estate Center, the average price of homes in the Beaumont housing market has decreased in the past 12 months, not increased.   Likewise home sales have declined:

The local "home market" is depressed, not inflated as Klein claims.

Government and retail is the only two areas of job growth.

Klein's subject/verb disagreement is representative of his many grammatical signatures. His claim of job growth in the government and retail sectors is easily refuted by the latest figures from the Texas Workforce Commission. For the Beaumont-Port Arthur metro:

The only business sector that gained jobs in the past year is the education and Health Services sector.  Contrary to Klein's claims, even the government sector lost jobs.

Compare with the State of Texas:

Likewise, compare the historical unemployment of Jefferson County and the State of Texas:

The correlation is obvious, except to those who slept through high school economics.

And finally - sales tax revenue ARE DOWN almost 25% year to date.

Klein's statement is more gibberish, since "year-to-date" means 25 days. Tax payments from the State of Texas to Jefferson County are computed on a quarterly basis, so PRK's figure of 25 percent is clearly manufactured.  Figures from the Texas State Comptroller's Office corroborate this. Note that figures for the last two quarters of 2009 are not yet available:

Jefferson	Year	Quarter	Gross Sales	Amount Subject to State Tax	Outlets
	2008	1	7,701,204,117	798,969,733	5,446
	2008	2	9,848,366,098	866,676,471	5,442
	2008	3	8,722,060,583	805,672,257	5,458
	2008	4	14,322,038,975	1,056,482,564	7,553
Total			40,593,669,773	3,527,801,025
	2009	1	7,152,478,111	853,412,205	5,340
	2009	2	7,359,323,730	816,508,709	5,317
Total			14,511,801,841	1,669,920,914

My favorite part of Klein's article:

The perfect storm is on the horizon.

According to Philip, "perfect storms" strike Jefferson County frequently. One of my favorite examples:

Nobody, and we mean nobody, could have ever predicted the outright war that is brewing behind the scenes in Jefferson County. Those who are friends are now enemies.

The Perfect Political Storm brewing [sic].  The days of we just are democrats and we all get along seem to be coming to a close.

"We are going to need Gilbert to step in soon," said a long time elected official in Jefferson County.

Clearly - unless a miracle is going to happen, [Thurman] Bartie is in.

Thurman Bartie never made it in and Judge Ron Walker isn't stepping down in April.