Oct 5, 2010

History (Another Moronic One-Word Title)

More breaking news from Philip R. Klein and the Southeast Texas Political Review:
If the election were held today, in the governors race, Rick Perry holds a strong 47% to 41% lead over Bill White. And that is in Jefferson County? We had to do a double take - but that is what the numbers showed.
Philip is quoting the Rasmussen Reports poll. Note the similarity in numbers:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Lone Star State finds Perry with 48% of the vote, while White has 42% support. Three percent (3%) favor another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

Last month, Perry held a 49% to 41% lead. The new numbers move the race from Solid GOP to Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.
The odds of two different polls mirroring each other like this are astronomical. More likely, an idiot who knows nothing about statistical analysis changed the numbers without understanding how such numbers are derived. 

For verification, consider the Zogby poll which showed a much closer margin:
Zogby International: Perry Leads White in Texas Governor's Race 44%-41%

50% Rate Perry's Job Performance Positively, But Only 37% Say He Deserves Re-Election
Since the Rasmussen poll is a statewide poll, not a county-by-county poll, Philip just made this up:
The Southeast Texas Political Review has learned that a poll taken by a democratic pollster in Austin has discovered that Jefferson County voters, if the election were held today, would break Republican for the first time in the history of Jefferson County.

According to sources in Austin, if the election were held today in any race, the vote would go 53% GOP and 44% Democrat with the rest undecided.
No poll anywhere would show the same 53-44 spread "in any race." Beware of idiots on parade.

Lessons learned: any time PRK quotes numbers that can't be verified, he probably made it up:
Budget Numbers - We hear pre numbers are? Get this - they want to spend MORE MONEY THIS NEXT YEAR IN THE COUNTY. The number? 146 million? Get that! Wow! 
Get that! Wow! The real number: $107 million. Philip's missed by only $39 million dollars, or roughly half of what he thinks the Jefferson County budget should be.

Does anyone really believe that someone in Bill White's organization leaked internal documents concerning campaign strategy to Philip R. Klein?
Internal documents leaked to the Review show that the goal of the White campaign is to fire up the numbers in Jefferson County and to attempt to get out the vote. White, who is widely unknown in East Texas, made three tours through the strongly held democrat area only to find little or no support other than the trial lawyers in the area.
If so, then why hasn't Philip posted those documents?  I'm sure these pages are infinitely more interesting than Dr. Carrol Thomas' badly scanned newsletter that Klein posted last week.

Philip invented this quote, too:
What is the difference? We asked the question to the democrat pollsters this past weekend in Austin.

"The Tea Party. I have to say it. There is a huge base of silent people that have now broken loose into the electorate. They are mad and they want to vote. National politics has hit us in the guts as democrats. Texas is going conservative fast and the hate for the Chicago style is hitting hard. We are going to suffer. Seats may go into play like Chet Edwards where polling shows Edwards may lose the race by six points," said our source.
There are several of Philip's grammatical tells in the excerpt, but Klein's visceral language is a dead giveaway that he just made it up. The reference to Chet Edwards is another giveaway.

In Southeast Texas, 900 people are active members of the Tea Party.  The membership roster is further diluted by geography: members come from several counties, not just Jefferson County. For those whose memory of local politics extends past the last burrito consumed, reviewing the membership roster reveals many familiar names who've been associated with local fringe politics dating back to the Moral Majority and earlier.

I'm not sure how much influence the Tea Party will have at the state level, since all statewide offices are already held by Republicans. 

Klein writes:
Two candidates in Jefferson County are vying for seats in county wide races. Both - are in fact strong names with strong business backgrounds. One is running for County Treasure and the other is running for Tax Assessor.
Our take?

We will see. We are less than 4 weeks away - and we are waiting on the TV spots. We see one if not both of the candidates trying reach over to some conservative business leaders for support - but nobody wants to reach over this line yet in fear that the damn might not break.
"...the damn might not break?"  And, how credible is someone who consistently refers to the county's fiscal officer as the "County Treasure?"

It doesn't take a self-described political consultant with a history of bankrupt businesses and tabloid investigations to predict the winner in the race for Jefferson County Treasurer.

Georgine Guillory won the Democratic primary with only 60 percent of the vote, leaving a potential of 6300 votes that could conceivably go to Funchess. Putting this into perspective, that's six times the total membership of the Southeast Texas Tea Party. It doesn't take a shrewd political analyst to see how this race will turn out.  

In closing, PRK writes:
Do we see history...we don't know. The polling numbers we saw frankly shocked us and we are not sure that we believe it.

Again - we are not sure.
"We" think no comment is necessary.

2 comments :

Anonymous said...

Busted again!!! Opps!!!

Anonymous said...

what an unfortunate sole