Nov 1, 2010

Klein's Prognostications: Low-Hanging Fruit

Special Statement: I'm not devoting any more space to Philip R. Klein's unethical actions last week out of concern for this loyal reader. PRK pirated and posted a Facebook photo without permission on the Southeast Texas Political Review and implied that this picture would  be included in a lawsuit against Operation Kleinwatch (OK).  Klein's victim had simply befriended the OK FB page.

Reiterating Friday's posting,  I'm touched by the show of support (!), but I do not actively solicit followers on Facebook. Since Philip has a history of harassing FB patrons, I encourage readers to read my blog directly, because all content from this blog is fed via RSS into my Facebook page.

Leave your anonymous comments here for plausible deniability ("Gus did it.").  Use the anonymous links above to visit the Southeast Texas Political Review.
I've ignored most of Klein's postings concerning tomorrow's elections before now. There were several reasons:
  • It's harder to hit moving targets, since Klein changed many of his predictions regularly.
  • I didn't want to give him a chance to change mistakes before the election.
  • Early voting wasn't over, so many statements couldn't be verified.
  • I suspect that Philip was typing while drunk (TWD) when he wrote his predictions.
As an example, PRK could not have known the daily breakouts from early voting, since the results aren't released until tomorrow evening. All of his information came from Jefferson County Clerk, who posted the daily turnout on her website, despite the wild claims he made concerning voting totals.

But tonight is election eve and the low-hanging fruit is ripe. 
So we call it a pick it.
Pick your candidate and don’t be surprised for a close night.
But the vote is not today. So we say pick em.
We will see. So pick it kids.
With this insightful commentary, Klein's sobriety is already suspect. Here are more:
Who knows that is who and who is “Open for Business.”
Who knows what this gibberish means? Not I.
Lt. Governor...we have Lt. Governor Dewhurst v. Linda Thompson.
PRK meant Linda Chavez-Thompson.
Jefferson County Tax Assessor – Collector... Marion Johnson bails out of the office...
PRK meant Miriam Johnson.
Jefferson County Treasurer...Georgina Guillory is good at one thing...
PRK meant Georgine Guillory.
JP Number 7 – Mid County...that is Mark DeRoune.
PRK meant Mark DeRouen. Note that Derouen is running in Precinct No. 2.

Typically, Klein made up a number, attributed to a credible source:
Governor...This has been a dog race...Real Clear has the race at +12 for Perry – and some of the polls have it in the red tide going to maybe 15%.
The RCP Average at the time Philip published this (10/26) was about 8.5 percent, not "+12" percent as Klein claims. See for yourself in the Flash chart on this page.

Condescension based on ignorance is never pretty:
She is a RINO Repub. For those of you that don’t know what that is – it is someone that runs as a GOPER but is really a democrat in a RINO skin.
RINO means Republican In Name Only.

Likewise, Klein's fuzzy math is reflected in the simplistic spreadsheet he posted Saturday night.
The Review ran some numbers today and we came up with a formula based upon (1) past votes counted in 2008 and (2) a GOP up skew of 11%
PRK's purported analysis followed no known statistical model, his modifiers made no sense whatsoever, and the data set is incomplete to support Klein's methodology and conclusions.

For the mathematically-impaired, why would one apply a "GOP up skew" of 11 percent in a strongly Democratic box like the Port Arthur Sub-Courthouse?  Rather these modifiers would differ by box, depending upon several factors not included in Klein's calculation.

The dead giveaway is Klein's simple arithmetic: unless calculus is used to crunch the numbers, it's impossible to determine a reliable confidence interval and margin of errors. PRK's calculations are closer to middle school math than college-level statistics.

In his predictions, I think this is Philip's biggest blunder before the election. This comment is highly representative of Klein's expertise:
Comptroller...Background : Not much to this race. Really – the democrats could not even come up with a candidate.
The Comptroller's race is the most controversial race behind the gubernatorial election.  Here's why.

Incumbent Susan Combs sits on the Legislative Redistricting Board and has no Democratic opponent as Philip noted. The Libertarian candidate, Mary Ruwart, could normally expect up to 20 percent of the vote.

However, Green Party candidate Edward Lindsay may pull as much as ten percent in this race, primarily from Democrats who will not vote for Combs or Ruwart. 

Why is this important? The Green party can gain ballot access in Texas for the next two years if they can exceed five percent in any statewide office. They gain four years of access if they can break two percent in the Governor's race. The party has not had access to the ballot for at least 12 years.

As a brilliant strategy, the Republican Party funded the Green Party's ballot petitions program, qualifying them for the ballot in this year's off-election. (See here, here here and here). If the Green Party gains ballot access, this will further dilute the strength of the Democratic Party during redistricting.

Read more here: 
Philip missed the whole thing.


Anonymous said...

Gus, if Phil finishes "mulling" his offer over to do comments on Channel 4 election night, are you live blogging this historical event?

Anonymous said...

I just pissed all over myself I laughed so hard.

Anonymous said...

I hope he's not slurring his words on Fox4 tomorrow night.

Anonymous said...

At least he got most of the races right this time. Welcome Mr. President - Fred Thompson joins the race...for a about 15 minutes.

Anonymous said...

"The dye has been cast."

"We have left the predictions where they are right now even though we might have messed up the Port Neches box - so we will adjust by a little and come out saying the number (s) are around 53.1% Democrat over GOP in Southeast Texas - on the actual vote."


Anonymous said...

Hey, will Klein be in regular makeup tonight or clownface?

Anonymous said...

Voting irregularities have surfaced in Nederland where a fat man is stuck in the door. Other voters can't get in or out.

Haz-mat and SWAT teams have been called and an investigation has been launched.

Anonymous said...

wow really wow kleintific
voter history in jefferson county

jeff branick 237616 votes

philip klein write-in 1 vote

prk got a vote, did we also vote for weself

branick wins in a mudslide but phil got at least part of the vote

Anonymous said...

"We messed up..."

How true, how true.

Anonymous said...

Great article, Gus. Looking forward to the "post mortem post post the polls closing post midnight."

Anonymous said...

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the TV News was supposed to be unbiased:

Anonymous said...

What has that got to do with TV news? It's a commercial by Jefferson County Republicans.
It's pretty stupid, but they are allowed.

Anonymous said...

look at who's running the channel.

Anonymous said...

Isn't that Phil Klein in one of the pictures holding a gun?

Anonymous said...

prk for your info
polls open 7am close 7pm
no official info released before polls close until you are guilty of voter intimidation and fraud
we will post the post mortem issue at midnight for wednesday morning
or 2359 hrs tuesday 2400 hours tuesday 0001 hours wednesday
here goes loop de lie again

Anonymous said...

Re: Mr. Klein's predictions

I expected more from someone who once ran George H.W. Bush's campaign. Giggle.

Anonymous said...

I feel certain Phil will be invited back to U of H for a lecture on election commentary on live television. Fox4 might be included because of their astute judgement in securing Phil's insightful commentary.

Anonymous said...

Phil's prowess at predictions is nothing compared to mine: I picked the winner in every single
non-contested race!

Anonymous said...

look in the mirror
three things offed the people
1 out of control lying bloggers and leadhead editors
2 unelected officials who think they are elected voices about the people
3 being told how to and what to by out of control lying bloggers and we unelected unofficial nonelected judges who talks bold but never runs for office only we mouth
final thought people began with the giggles in the early 1980's and still giggle to this day in jefferson county. why low hanging fruit