Nov 3, 2010

Klein's Prognostications: A New Low

As I pointed out in Part 1, Philip R. Klein revised his predictions several times over the past weeks. The most recent came from Saturday night, when PRK predicted that no Republicans would win Jefferson County races:
Okay - the early numbers are in. And there is good news and there is bad news. The good news is that there is a very strong GOP turn out in the areas that the GOP seemingly has control. The bad news - the Democrats came out in the last few days of early voting. And they have the advantage in the early vote.

So if you believe our numbers - the Democrats came out in the last three days and really made a difference in the vote.


So unless the numbers in the heavy blue pct's vote for the GOP (uh no) we will see close races - but no banana.
The common cliché is "no cigar," but I thought Klein's fruit metaphor was appropriate for a nut. In reality, three Republicans were elected to county offices.

Let's examine The Philip R. Klein Election 2010 Predictions in detail. This is his predictions from last week: 
US House Of Representatives – District 2: Ted Poe will win the seat at 70% of the vote or more.
Miss: Ted Poe won the seat with almost 90 percent of the vote.
Governor: Perry will win this race. We predict at the end of the night a 56 and whatever win for Perry.
Hit:  Perry won with 55 percent.
Lt. Governor: Dewhurst by as many numbers as you can count. This will be a 60 – 40 race.
Hit: Dewhurst won 62.2 percent, although Chavez-Thompson polled 32 percent of the race.
Comptroller: Not much to this race. Really – the democrats could not even come up with a candidate...Susan Combs with 60-68% of the vote. 
Major Miss: Combs got almost 84 percent of the vote and Edward Lindsay received 6.3 percent of the vote, enough to guarantee the Green Party access to the ballot for the next two years. This will further dilute Democratic strength during redistricting. Philip missed the significance of this race. 
As for Patterson, Staples and Porter – they will beat their opponent by around 5-9 points depending on their race.
Miss, Miss, and Miss: Patterson: 62 percent over 34 percent (28 percentage points); Staples: 62 over 35 (27 percentage points); and  Porter: 60 over 36 percent (24 percentage points).
Jefferson County Tax Assessor – Collector: So our prediction is this – as the numbers for the GOP are hovering at 57% for the early voting – we will drop that by 6 points – making it advantage Howard – but by a nail. So we call it a pick it. Pick your candidate and don’t be surprised for a close night.
Miss. In spite of Klein's gibberish, Shane Howard won the race by 10 percentage points. Most people saw this coming, but Philip missed it.
Jefferson County Treasurer:  We see a win by Guillory.
Major Miss. Not only did Tim Funchess beat Guillory by 11 percent, most people saw it coming. I wrote on Oct. 5, 2010:
Georgine Guillory won the Democratic primary with only 60 percent of the vote, leaving a potential of 6,300 votes that could conceivably go to Tim Funchess. Putting this into perspective, that's six times the total membership of the Southeast Texas Tea Party. It doesn't take a shrewd political analyst to see how this race will turn out.   
Philip R. Klein is an idiot.
JP Number 7 – Mid County: Man – we just don’t know.
Miss. Brad Burnett won the race by 11 points (55.46 percent to 44.54 percent). Most people saw it coming.
JP Pct 1 Place 2: We see Nancy Beaulieu winning this race with around 59% of the vote.
Major hit.  Beaulieu won 58.85 percent of the vote.
Hardin County will see Billy Caraway come home to about a 59% victory and anyone with an R next to their name will sit pretty.   
Major Miss and miss. Judge Caraway captured 73 percent of the vote to Russell Wright's 27 percent Most people saw it coming, but Philip missed the landslide.

Likewise, Democrat Kathy Simpson beat Republican David Lisenby in the race for JP, Precinct 2, by 24 percentage points.
Orange County – some of the people with D’s next to their names will get nervous after seeing the results. They are thanking their lucky stars that they have not that many running them right now. That changes in two years. Look for a mass defection.
Miss, especially since Philip didn't know the candidates in the Orange County races. Note that Republican Jody Crump won his race for Precinct 4 County Commissioner by 20 percentage points.
The House of Representatives will see a 54 seat win for the GOP. That could go higher – not lower.
Hit. With 10 races still undecided, Republicans won 239 seats in the House, a gain of  61 seats. This makes the largest loss by the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives since 1938, when Roosevelt's Democratic Party lost a net of 72 seats to the Republican Party. Like the modern-day Tea Party, the minor Progressive and Farmer-Labor Parties also supported the 1938 Republican Party.
In the Senate – we will look for a 47 seat win for the GOP. 
Major Hit. At this time, the GOP won six seats for a total of 47.
In The Governors races – Brown will win California, all others lien GOP. Look for a number being 28 Governorships going to the GOP. The wave is coming up on top of the ticket.
Major miss.  In spite of my lien on Klein's credibility, Republicans won 27 races, while Democrats won 12 races. Democrats now hold 26 governorships and Republicans hold 24.
Remember – our numbers have been off of the last two cycles. We used to be up in the high 90’s – in predictions. Now we are around the 80%. So we will see.
Actually, Philip's predictions were accurate only about 37.5 percent of the time. In this cycle:
  • 17 races called
  • 12 misses
  • 5 hits
  • 29 percent correct
A new low.

4 comments :

Anonymous said...

LOL! Even a broken clock is right twice a day!!!!

Anonymous said...

Good job Gus!!

Anonymous said...

november to remember
we crawfish comes out of our hole
now we must answer for our badmouthing so so many least we might end up in dat ole hot water

Anonymous said...

Hey, Phil. Close but no banana.